May 13, 2004- May 18, 2004

This Analysis was published in Sharq daily on May 16, 2004. I have mixed it with the news about the new head of IRIB:



Larijani head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting- IRIB, was replaced by another person from his own wing- Mr Zarghaami. This replacement is a link in a chain of events hardly anyone could see coming a few weeks ago.

Last winter when Askar-owladi and Badmachian, two famous conservatives were taken out from the list of the Parliament candidates, nobody noticed it. Except a few who by mistake, interpreted it as an attempt by right wing to prepare a list consisting of less known figures to guarantee triumph in the elections. Due to lack of credibility the conservatives suffer from, this analysis didn't seem to be wrong. Although later, the events revealed that some very important points were neglected.

Although the new Parliament hasn't begun work, the newly elected members have gathered three times so far to discuss about the policies they are going to make. From these gatherings, some news has leaked out. Surprisingly, it has been clear that all famous and known figures of the right wing are put aside. It proved what happened to the list of the Parliament candidates was not a unique incident. In other words, the force winning the Parliament is a new coalition in right wing called Abad-garan.

Why this is happening? Why have the famous figures been kicked out?

The answer can be found in the definition of the mission that the Iranian 'new cons' have set out for themselves. If the new Parliament is going to obey the orders coming from upper ranks, the famous figures who themselves can throw some weight around in the system can not work as properly as expected, they were deemed not obedient enough. To sort out this 'problem' it is 'safer' to work with new people.

Among newly elected MPs, three group can be recognized:
1- A group of less than 30 of reformists who succeeded to somehow pass the filters and gain a seat.
2- Independent MPs who are about 60.
3- The coalition of right MPs consisting of 200 figures.

Among the third group who is the main winner of the election, the number of the "old right" figures is less than 50.

Ex-head of IRIB, Mr Larijani worked for 10 years on his post. There are rumors that he is going to prepare himself for presidential election which is going to be held about one year from now. But the new head, Mr Zarghaami, is a person whose political background proves the accuracy of the analysis based on forming a new core in Iranian conservative wing.

Who is Zarghaami?
He is one of the students who captured US embassy for over 400 days back in 1979. He is one of those rare hostage takers who didn't later join the reformist movement, instead he joined the Revolutionary Guard and even tried his 'talents' as a cultural official. During his time of work as a 'cultural figure' the censorship of movies was intensified. He was proud to tell in an interview that he didn't have time to meet Mr Kiarostami, Iranian best known film director.

Appointment of him as the new head of IRIB is important if we consider that in other ranks, the same process is going on. This group who is taking power in the system is famous to be 'absolute obedient of Velaayat-e Faqeeh', a religious term used for the Supreme Leader-Ali Khamenei. From the same wing, the head of Revolutionary Guards, Mr Rahim Safavi is very famous for his frankness against the opposition. Once in a speech he threatened the opponents with beheading if they continue 'their anti-islamic activities'. In the Tehran Municipality, Mr Ahmadi-nejad doesn't hide his extremely right-wing ideas.

Among the conservative clerics membering the Guardian Council, Mr Larijani (brother of ex-head of IRIB) and in Judiciary Power, Mr Elham are famous to have ultra-right ideas. Mr Haddad Aadel who is expected to be the head of the new Parliament also belongs to the same wing.

The principles this group believe in, are:
- In economy, they are going to give more power to the already powerful economical bodies who have strong links with this group and the Leadership-Ali Khamenei. Their presence in Trade and Bank activities is the most powerful in the country.
- In cultural field, they are going to gain more power because according the Constitution, no private owned radio or TV network can be established giving an exceptionally unique strength to IRIB.
- In social field, the religious propaganda is going to be empowered. Other members of the group work in famous dailies.
- In political field, this group looks at North Korea as a good sample. They seek the solutions not in negotiations with foreigners but in trying to gain nuclear power. They believe if they succeed to achieve it, they would have equivalent position to bargain with the West.