May 13, 2004- May 18, 2004

This Analysis was published in Sharq daily on May 16, 2004. I have mixed it with the news about the new head of IRIB:



Larijani head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting- IRIB, was replaced by another person from his own wing- Mr Zarghaami. This replacement is a link in a chain of events hardly anyone could see coming a few weeks ago.

Last winter when Askar-owladi and Badmachian, two famous conservatives were taken out from the list of the Parliament candidates, nobody noticed it. Except a few who by mistake, interpreted it as an attempt by right wing to prepare a list consisting of less known figures to guarantee triumph in the elections. Due to lack of credibility the conservatives suffer from, this analysis didn't seem to be wrong. Although later, the events revealed that some very important points were neglected.

Although the new Parliament hasn't begun work, the newly elected members have gathered three times so far to discuss about the policies they are going to make. From these gatherings, some news has leaked out. Surprisingly, it has been clear that all famous and known figures of the right wing are put aside. It proved what happened to the list of the Parliament candidates was not a unique incident. In other words, the force winning the Parliament is a new coalition in right wing called Abad-garan.

Why this is happening? Why have the famous figures been kicked out?

The answer can be found in the definition of the mission that the Iranian 'new cons' have set out for themselves. If the new Parliament is going to obey the orders coming from upper ranks, the famous figures who themselves can throw some weight around in the system can not work as properly as expected, they were deemed not obedient enough. To sort out this 'problem' it is 'safer' to work with new people.

Among newly elected MPs, three group can be recognized:
1- A group of less than 30 of reformists who succeeded to somehow pass the filters and gain a seat.
2- Independent MPs who are about 60.
3- The coalition of right MPs consisting of 200 figures.

Among the third group who is the main winner of the election, the number of the "old right" figures is less than 50.

Ex-head of IRIB, Mr Larijani worked for 10 years on his post. There are rumors that he is going to prepare himself for presidential election which is going to be held about one year from now. But the new head, Mr Zarghaami, is a person whose political background proves the accuracy of the analysis based on forming a new core in Iranian conservative wing.

Who is Zarghaami?
He is one of the students who captured US embassy for over 400 days back in 1979. He is one of those rare hostage takers who didn't later join the reformist movement, instead he joined the Revolutionary Guard and even tried his 'talents' as a cultural official. During his time of work as a 'cultural figure' the censorship of movies was intensified. He was proud to tell in an interview that he didn't have time to meet Mr Kiarostami, Iranian best known film director.

Appointment of him as the new head of IRIB is important if we consider that in other ranks, the same process is going on. This group who is taking power in the system is famous to be 'absolute obedient of Velaayat-e Faqeeh', a religious term used for the Supreme Leader-Ali Khamenei. From the same wing, the head of Revolutionary Guards, Mr Rahim Safavi is very famous for his frankness against the opposition. Once in a speech he threatened the opponents with beheading if they continue 'their anti-islamic activities'. In the Tehran Municipality, Mr Ahmadi-nejad doesn't hide his extremely right-wing ideas.

Among the conservative clerics membering the Guardian Council, Mr Larijani (brother of ex-head of IRIB) and in Judiciary Power, Mr Elham are famous to have ultra-right ideas. Mr Haddad Aadel who is expected to be the head of the new Parliament also belongs to the same wing.

The principles this group believe in, are:
- In economy, they are going to give more power to the already powerful economical bodies who have strong links with this group and the Leadership-Ali Khamenei. Their presence in Trade and Bank activities is the most powerful in the country.
- In cultural field, they are going to gain more power because according the Constitution, no private owned radio or TV network can be established giving an exceptionally unique strength to IRIB.
- In social field, the religious propaganda is going to be empowered. Other members of the group work in famous dailies.
- In political field, this group looks at North Korea as a good sample. They seek the solutions not in negotiations with foreigners but in trying to gain nuclear power. They believe if they succeed to achieve it, they would have equivalent position to bargain with the West.

May 9, 2004- May 13, 2004

During the previous weeks, there was news of inauguration of a new airport in southern part of Tehran named after the late leader of Islamic Republic- Ayatollah Khomeini.

After early fluctuations occured in the construction because of war and embargos, the Islamic Republic decided to finally begin operating the airport. Two weeks ago, Minister of Road and Transport moved his office to the new airport, to supervise the whole process more closely and accelerate the operations. The inauguration day was scheduled to be Saturday, May 9, 2004.

When the inaguration day came, however, the dominating headlines were "The airport was shut down before the inauguration."
Aftab reported on the first flight, an Emirates' from Dubai which could land but the second one belonging to Iranian Airlines which wasn't allowed to land and had to change the route to Isfahan.

The reason given for the strange event was an official announcement by General Headquarter of Armed Forces. In the report they had protested the Ministry of Road and Transportation for giving the catering and internal administration of the airport to a Turkish company. To protest, the military vehicles occupied the runway and impeded the Iranian airplane to land.

Ahmad Khorram, Minister of Roads and Transport told the FARS news agency:" In such a project all bodies should collaborate. But unfortunately we just face sabotage." Sharq wrote on Sunday, May 10.

What has been the actual story? Sharq daily gave more details:"….The plane could be seen over the airport trying to land but the runway was occupied by the armored vehicles. The officials arrived in the runway and tried to negotiate with armed forces. The pilot announced the situation as emergency. The officials who had tried to compromise the armed forces couldn't do anything, so they went to the Minister's office. Then, the Minister himself went to negotiate but his efforts were fruitless. The plane was ordered to change the route and land in Isfahan. The Minister left the airport."

Iranian armed forces include two divisions: the remainees of Shah's military forces and the after-the-Revolution-established Revolutionary Guards who are the ideological subordinate of the conservatives especially the supreme leader- Ali Khamnei. Although there was no direct hint to Revolutionary Guards to be the key responsible in the story, everybody in the country could guess that this part was the body which occupied the airport and impeded the operation of the airport.

In the history of Islamic Republic, what happened in Imam Khomeini airport on Saturday May 9, is quite unprecedented and it's not strange when some express it as a 'small coup'. According the Constitution, armed forces are prohibited to interfere the politics. Although during the city council election in last winter, there were organized groups of Revolutionary Guards voting for conservatives. They had never taken part in the politics before. The question coming to mind is whether this development is an isolated event or is it the first link in a chain of events yet to come.

May 1, 2004- May 08, 2004

Twenty-one months ago a piece of news dragged thousands of university students to the streets. A university professor was sentenced to death for a speech delivered in Hamadan, a city in the western part of the country. The title of the speech was "Islamic Protestantism." In it he expressed his views on the differences between the traditional Islam and a modernized interpretation of it. His words encountered very sharp reaction by the conservative clerics and when put under trial, resulted in a death sentence for him.

Being that the accused was a war veteran with an amputated leg and an Islamist intellectual, the sentence aroused shock and anger in the country. Thousands of students stopped the classes, refused to take part in the final exams, rallied in the campuses and protested very strongly. Later, after bargains in the top ranks, the sentence was reduced to eight years, exile, 74 lashes of whips. Last week in the face to face meeting the young people had with Khatami, a university student reminded him the story of their sentenced professor- Kazem Aghajari.

The day after, when nobody could predict the news could pop up again to the headlines, they wrote:" Aghajari's death sentence is confirmed."
The head of Justice Department of Hamadan told the journalists: "We stand against the people who think like Aghajari. We never felt any regret of what we have decided against him."- Vaghaye Ettefaghiye wrote in May 5.

The same day, Esmaeel Shooshtari, Minister of Justice being famous for being the most silent minister in the cabinet, told ISNA asking him about the verdict: "Don’t ask me please. I don't think it is correct to give personal comments on verdicts." It was not strange to hear him speaking as such, because according Iranian Constitution, the judiciary power is a separate and independent power and it's the legal power to issue the verdicts and sentences.

This time, the news hasn't excited the people for these days no political news can do it any more. Aghajari's attorney, Saleh Nikbakht told the press in a conference held on the very issue:" The verdict is not confirmed yet." –Aftab wrote.
Nothing is revealed more and the continuation of the story is lost in haze. Now, the slight excitement which arose by dailies on the first day, is extinguished.

For Iranian cinema facing many problems, the exciting news was screening a movie called "Marmoolak- Lizard". Lizard is a nickname for a thief who is sentenced to life imprisonment. He manages to flee from prison wearing a Mullah's costume and turban. The story is sensitive because for the first time after the revolution, it looks at clerics through a different eyelet from that of official stand. The movie couldn't win any prize in domestic festivals but was selected as the best by the spectators. Just before Iranian new year, there was fussy advertisements giving the news on screening it but later it was said that the film was banned. Two weeks ago, when it was screened finally, there were long queues in front of cinemas. In Meshed the movie faced a trouble. In the midnight some vigilances attacked a cinema having the film on the screen and forced them to stop it.- dailies wrote on May 6. Then, Ayatollah Jannati, the speaker of Guardian Council, a traditional cleric council who is famous to be against any kind of reformism in the country, told the media:" I haven't watched the movie myself. But all who have seen it believe that it should be banned."- Vaghaye Ettefaghiye wrote.
On the same day, Mohammad Ali Abtahi, advisor to the president who is a cleric himself and runs a weblog, wrote in a sarcastic tone to support the film:" As far as we have friends like those who ban such films, we don't need enemies any more."
Evidently, the director of the film would benefit a lot from all these discussions because in Iranian society whatsoever banned by the officials, is welcomed quite heartedly by the people.

Apr 24, 2004- Apr 30, 2004

The last week's headlines were dominated by social news rather than political events:

On Sun Apr 25, the main headlines were about the collapse of a bank building in southern part of Tehran:" 75 people survived and were pulled out from the rubbles"- Sharq wrote. In the accident, 18 people were injured including one who died later from the trauma. No official announcement was issued to explain the reasons.
Later, it was said that the building was too old to bear with the overloads because of some construction operations going on in the building. "One of the officials of the bank said that the responsibility belonged to the Metro Company which was digging the ground beneath the building."- Aftab wrote.
For the capital city with thousands of old houses which can not bear even with the slightest shocks, the incident could be an alert about the critical situation due to many active faults beneath its grounds.
On Mon, Apr 26 , Vaqaye Ettefaqiye wrote:" The responsible officials were summoned to the court."

On Mon , Apr 26 , dailies covered the death of five patients hospitalized in a famous hospital in Tehran. They died because of anesthetics. The story was that all the dead had gone under for operations and never had gotten back to consciousness. The reason was announced to be the use of expired anesthetics. The news was the first link in the chain of disputes among the hospital officials, the company which distributes the pharmaceuticals and the Ministry of Health (the main responsible body for distribution of anesthetics in the country.) "No one has been arrested yet."- Vaqaye Ettefaqiye wrote on Mon, Apr 26.

After a long time of silence, Khatami spoke to the young people gathered in presidency palace on Wed 28, on the occasion of Youth Day. Twenty young men and women from of the youngest populations in the world, spoke to him quite frankly. The most courageous one, a university student whose words were supported by the audience with a long applause, hinted at Khatami's silence and said: "Mr President! My friends and I have been thinking what to tell you. Finally, we decided that I stay silent for three minutes in front of you….. You have been silent when the university dormitories were attacked by the vigilances, when the newspapers were shut down, when the minister of Higher Education resigned to protest. I'm asking you Mr President, how long are you going to keep on this silence? Isn't it time to break it? I am asking you Mr President, why our generation is frustrated? I am telling you, it's your fault."- Vaqaye Ettefaqiye wrote.
Another girl, a young journalist and blogger protested the internet filtering. A former prisoner expressed his anxiety of the fate of hundreds of boys and girls like himself who can not go back to a noble life because of the high crime rate in the society. Khatami tried to answer the protesting young ones using the same words once could excite the people. Some six years ago these words had dragged millions to ballot boxes to vote for him and for Change. The hopes and excitement is substituted by despair and frustration now.
Khatami tried to paint a bright picture of the current situation through comparing it with six years ago. But it seemed that his words hardly could reach even the people inside the presidential palace, let it be alone seventy millions of Iranian population.

"My knees are too weary to be able to dance with the tune that officials play for me",- Bahman Farman-ara Iranian famous director said in an interview with Vaqaye Ettefaqiye on Wed 28, to express his anger and despair and to protest the restrictions that the directors face. The daily wrote about the 63 year old director who came back to the country after twenty years from Canada just a few years ago and the frustration he feels now because of the policies dictated by the officials. Being a religious intellectual, he never expected to be under such pressures and restriction. In the interview he announced that he prefers to stop film making as long as the restrictions are there to bother him: "If I was a person to make films according to the orders I receive, I would have done it much sooner- when I was younger." At the end when he was asked if he thought that the officials could help to solve the problem, he answered "I don't think so!"